Time to lock in. For me, the season officially begins after its schedule release show.
Because, honestly, betting on regular-season baseball sucks, the don’t have that many games going on right now, and I don’t bet hockey.
Instead, I just do deep dives into the roster moves, coaching changes and regression metrics to begin investing in NFL futures.
So, in celebration of the NFL’s new fiscal year, here are four teams I’m buying stock in or shorting this season.
This is an easy fade candidate after winning the NFC South last season with a losing record (8-9), going 7-3 in one-score games, which usually regress year over year (see the Kansas City Chiefs’ record in one-score games in 2024 and 2025) and has the third-toughest schedule this season.
Plus, every year, five teams that made the playoffs the previous year dont return to the postseason.
However, the Panthers made two huge additions to their defense, including LB Devin Lloyd and pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips, who were Pro Football Focuss (PFF) fourth- and 15th-ranked free agents. Lloyd was a second-team All-Pro last season and PFFs third-best linebacker in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins traded Phillips to the Eagles before Week 10 last season, and he made a big impact on Philadelphias defense. From Weeks 1-9, the Eagles ranked 17th in defensive EPA/play, per RBSDM.com. After acquiring Phillips, Phillys defensive EPA/play went to seventh from Weeks 10-18.
More importantly, the NFL is a quarterback-driven league and Im a believer in Panthers QB as a franchise quarterback worthy of a second contract.
Young was third in fourth-quarter comebacks last season and second in game-winning drives, which is the essence of playing quarterback.
Carolinas offensive line is solid at every position and WR Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Between their defensive additions and my hunch that Young will improve, Ill take the PANTHERS to win the NFC South (+310) again, which is the softest division in the NFL.
I might have to eat crow if the Broncos make the playoffs again this season, but I refuse to believe QB Bo Nix, who fractured his ankle in Denver’s win over the Buffalo Bills in the 2026 AFC Wild Card Round, is a franchise guy.
Frankly, I could just be a hater and stuck on my pre-draft analysis of him because what I wrote about Youngs fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives last season applies to Nix.
Regardless, Im holding the line with my Nix instinct because I just feel like his success is a combo of dumb luck, his surrounding talent and Denver head coach Sean Paytons smoke-and-mirrors offensive scheme.
The Broncos traded for WR Jaylen Waddle this offseason, but he is more of a No. 2 guy than a game-breaker and wide receivers are overrated in terms of impacting wins and losses.
Meanwhile, they have a ton of signs pointing toward regression this season, such as its first-place schedule (11th-easiest), above-average injury luck (eighth in “adjusted games lost to injury,” per FTN Fantasy), and going an unsustainable 11-2 in one-score games.
Denvers first six games are brutal, too. The Broncos play and the Chiefs in Week 1, the reigning AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2, the Super Bowl 2027 betting favorite Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, at the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4, at the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5 and the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in Week 5.
Furthermore, the AFC West has two legitimate Super Bowl contenders, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers, both of whom have better odds of winning the division, conference and Lombardi Trophy.
Since team win total bets dont usually come down to a half-game, there is value in their alternate win totals, Under and Over, aka “playing the longtail”.
And I dont like laying -110 or worse for a future. Hence, Im betting BR
