The midterm elections are three weeks away. In some states, voting has already begun. Betting site Kalshi shows odds of 61% that Democrats will win control of the senate.
Recent developments in the Texas and Michigan races suggest keeping your money in your pocket.
As voters find out more about front-runner Democrats James Talarico in Texas and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, the polls are tightening. They say intimacy breeds contempt; nowhere is this truer than in politics.
Talarico is the 2026 version of 2018 senate wannabe Beto ORourke, who memorably live-streamed his teeth-cleaning as a campaign stunt, but ultimately lost to Republican Ted Cruz despite his laudable dental hygiene. Talarico, a photogenic 37-year-old state representative, recently vanished from public view for nearly two weeks, an extraordinary absence so close to Election Day. He says he had the flu; does he not know about Theraflu? Has he heard of Zoom?
His disappearance gave rise to a whirlwind of apparently erroneous rumors. Because Talarico has voiced some wacky ideas in the past, like believing there are six genders or that God is non-binary â which he has been forced to walk back â some voters are primed to believe such rumors.
‘FAKE’ MODERATE TALARICO’S TEXAS SURGE TESTS PAXTON IN FIGHT TO HOLD CRUCIAL GOP SENATE SEAT
Ken Paxton, the states attorney general, is an unpopular candidate and carries considerable baggage, but his well-funded campaign is running ads showing Talarico making incendiary comments like, “I always think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity.” Talarico has also been outed as having previously voted as a state representative against bans on biological men playing in womens sports. Oops.
Beto ORourke lost in part because he embraced aggressive gun control in a state where most people have a gun. In 2022, Talarico appeared with the Texas Humane Legislation Network, warning of the “existential” need to “reduce our meat consumption”, in a state that prides itself on its cattle.
Undoubtedly, Talaricos progressive young base will not be deterred by his peculiar walk-about, but his lengthy absence from the campaign trail casts a cloud over his run. Some polls show him barely leading Ken Paxton; a recent UMass Lowell/YouGov poll shows the candidates tied, with 7% undecided.
As Trump rallies to energize his still-faithful base, its hard to imagine Talarico pulling out the win.
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Abdul El-Sayed, who calls himself doctor, but is not legally authorized to practice medicine, has been cha
